Three days

In approximately three days, three hours, and twenty-five minutes, twenty horses will be rushing out of the starting gate for my favorite horse race of the year; the Kentucky Derby.

As always, I attempt to handicap it. I'm generally not successful. But, here is my attempt.

Big Brown, who's looking to be the favorite, will get in an early speed duel with Monba and Gayego before taking the lead at the half, and fizzling out in the stretch to finish just off the board.

Visionaire, who is my sentimental favorite for being a Michael Matz trainee, is one who I think may be a wildcard. In six starts, he's won three and only been off the board once. He's never made it a full ten furlongs though, only nine, and that was when he finished fifth in the Blue Grass Stakes. While he showed a nice performance in the Gotham, I think he's just not quite cut out to compete at this level. I think he'll be mid-pack pretty much the entire race, finishing somewhere between tenth and twelfth.

Big Truck has shown some promise, but I just don't think he's cut out to go the distance. This has nothing to do with his last-place Blue Grass finish; that was on Polytrack. I just don't think he's going to be able to make it that far. His sire is a sprinter, and even though his dam is a Go For Gin daughter, I don't think that's going to help.

Colonel John seems to run whatever you want him too. I think he could be a real contender, and if I had a way to legally bet on him (without driving three hours) I'd at least bet him to show. My main concern is that he's really only raced on Western tracks. He's also from a pedigree that tends to be late maturing. Even if he doesn't win the Derby, though, I can certainly see Colonel John becoming the Lawyer Ron of 2009.

Z Fortune strikes me as one with potential. I think if he gets a clean break, he'll be right up in there during the stretch run. But it may well depend on what kind of day he's having; his fifth in the Rebel Stakes doesn't seem to have any good explanation as to why it happened.

Pyro may have only won his maiden as a two-year-old, but his record as a juvenile should certainly not be dismissed; he took second in the Champagne and the Juvenile, both to War Pass, who's not runnning due to injury. If War Pass was still in this, I'd go ahead and call it War Pass - Pyro - possibly Z Humor, the same as in the Champagne. Yes, Pyro had a horrible race in the Blue Grass, finishing tenth; but that was also the first time he'd raced on Polytrack (I love Polytrack for the safety factor, but I hate how it screws up a horse's running style!). I think Pyro will be a big contender. He likes to run from behind, but don't be fooled if Pyro is at the back of the pack in the first 3/4 mile. He'll make his move. He did it the same way in the Champagne, Juvenile, and Risen Star.

Eight Belles is a nice filly, but she should be in the Oaks. I just don't think she's going to be able to keep up with the boys and while she's certainly going to try, she's going to finish a well-beaten thirteenth or fourteenth.

I have to go now, Dr. Russell's wanting me to actually do some work, so I suppose I should. I'll continue this later, it's fun.